Unhappiness is the typical local reaction to any new report from the U.S. Census Bureau -- and for good reason.
Western New York's demographic outlook has been downbeat for as long as most of us can remember -- certainly back to the 1960s, perhaps further than that. Buffalo was the nation's 18th-largest metropolitan area when Dwight Eisenhower left the White House. It's now in 50th place as Barack Obama prepares to pack his bags.
So we've come to expect bad news whenever the Census Bureau counts the number of people living in the Buffalo metro area, which encompasses Erie and Niagara counties.
But the current source of official data at the metropolitan level -- the five-year version of the Census Bureau's 2014 American Community Survey (ACS) -- actually is more of a mixed bag. It blends some good news in with the not-so-good.
We've already written about a few of the positive signs. The ACS has detected an upswing in the number of young adults (25- to 34-year-olds) living in the City of Buffalo, and it has also found that the young people in the Buffalo area are better-educated than their peers in many other markets.
Those are positive trends, to be sure. But they also deserve a closer look, which is now possible because of the infinite variety of data spilling out of the ACS.
So let's focus on the local representation of various age groups, starting with 18- to 29-year-olds. Press reports commonly (and erroneously) refer to them as Millennials. (I say "erroneously" because there is no standard definition of the Millennial Generation. Some analysts extend its boundaries to cover everybody between the ages of 14 and 35; others are more stringent.)
We'll confine ourselves to the 192,000 people in Erie and Niagara counties who fit within the 18-29 group. These young men and women are finishing their educations, launching careers, having children and buying homes. They're vitally important because they're laying the local foundation for economic and demographic growth.
The good news is that the 18-29 group accounts for 16.9 percent of all residents in the Buffalo area, an impressively strong concentration. It's actually a tick better than the combined rate of 16.8 percent for the nation's 104 major metros (those with populations higher than 500,000). And it puts Buffalo on the small list of those Northeastern metros where at least one-sixth of all people fit within the 18-29 timeframe.
NORTHEASTERN MAJOR METROS WHERE AT LEAST ONE-SIXTH (16.7%) OF RESIDENTS ARE BETWEEN 18 AND 29
• Albany
• Baltimore
• Boston
• Buffalo
• New Haven, Conn.
• New York
• Philadelphia
• Providence
• Rochester
• Springfield, Mass.
• Syracuse
• Washington
It should be noted that Buffalo is competitive with the biggest markets in this group. Its concentration of 16.9 percent is tied with Baltimore and Washington -- and it's slightly ahead of Philadelphia's 16.8 percent and New York's 16.7 percent.
The Buffalo area has an overall population of 1,135,000, putting it in 50th place nationally, as noted above. If we look at the 49 metros that are bigger, we find several that have smaller concentrations of 18- to 29-year-olds. Ten are at least one percentage point lower, which means their 18-29 shares are 15.9 percent or smaller.
U.S. METROS (BIGGER THAN BUFFALO) THAT ARE AT LEAST ONE PERCENTAGE POINT BELOW BUFFALO IN 18- TO 29-YEAR-OLDS
• Charlotte
• Cleveland
• Detroit
• Kansas City
• Louisville
• Miami
• Pittsburgh
• Portland, Ore.
• St. Louis
• Tampa-St. Petersburg
Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh carry economic burdens similar to Buffalo's, yet somehow haven't been as successful at attracting young adults. Miami and Tampa-St. Petersburg have enormous populations of the elderly, which inevitably reduces their 18-29 percentages.
But there still are a couple of surprises on this list, like Charlotte at 15.6 percent and Portland at 15.9 percent. Both of those places are reputed to be magnets for young adults, yet the numbers don't support their images. They can't keep up with Buffalo.
So that's the good news. But here's the downside. (You knew there was a downside, right?) There is no guarantee that Buffalo's infusion of youth will persist.
Nobody can accurately predict the future, though several demographics firms claim they can. (I could steer you to a report issued in the 1960s that envisioned an eventual population of more than 3 million for the Buffalo area. The margin of error turned out to be quite large.) Yet it is possible to sift through current indicators to discern a broad outline of the future.
And that's where we run into a problem. It becomes clear that the local generation after the 18-29 cohort is too small to maintain the upward momentum.
There are three ways to look at this situation. Let's briefly consider each in turn.
The first is to examine the national rankings for the age groups at both extremes. One-ninth (10.9 percent) of the Buffalo area's residents range between newborns and 9-year-olds. That's the 10th-lowest share for that cohort among the 104 major metros. At the opposite end of the spectrum are persons 75 or older. They constitute 7.9 percent of the local population, the 11th-highest concentration for that group.
Buffalo is one of only nine metros that rank in the bottom 15 for the very young and the top 15 for the very old. The others are Northern industrial towns or Florida retirement destinations.
U.S. METROS IN THE BOTTOM 15 FOR 0- TO 9-YEAR-OLDS AND THE TOP 15 FOR 75-PLUS-YEAR-OLDS
• Buffalo
• Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.
• Daytona Beach, Fla.
• Palm Bay-Melbourne, Fla.
• Pittsburgh
• Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
• Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, Pa.
• Tampa-St. Petersburg
• Youngstown, Ohio
Another way to use national ranks is to compare them for three successive age groups: 18-29, then 10-17, then 0-9.
The Buffalo metropolitan area actually gets worse as it goes down the ladder. The local market ranks 44th among the 104 major metros for its percentage of 18- to 29-year-olds, putting it well above the national midpoint. But Buffalo drops to 78th place for the share of 10- to 17-year-olds, and then to 95th for the 0-9 age group.
This descending pattern hints at a future population decline, or at least stagnation. It's a potential problem that is shared by 17 other major metros, including giants such as Los Angeles and Philadelphia.
U.S. METROS WITH DESCENDING NATIONAL RANKS FOR AGE GROUPS (18-29, 10-17, 0-9)
• Akron, Ohio
• Albany
• Baton Rouge, La.
• Buffalo
• Dayton, Ohio
• Hartford
• Los Angeles
• New Haven, Conn.
• Orlando
• Philadelphia
• Pittsburgh
• Providence
• Richmond
• Rochester
• Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, Pa.
• Spokane, Wash.
• Springfield, Mass.
• Syracuse
The final clue is offered by a simple ratio, which compares the number of children (newborns to 17-year-olds) with the corresponding population between the ages of 18 and 29.
The combined ratio for all 104 major markets is 1.41 children for every young adult. But Buffalo is considerably behind the pace with a ratio of 1.25. Sixteen major metros range between 1.06 and 1.25.
U.S. METROS WITH 1.25 OR FEWER 0- TO 17-YEAR-OLDS FOR EVERY 18- TO 29-YEAR-OLD
• Albany
• Baton Rouge, La.
• Boston
• Buffalo
• Charleston, S.C.
• Columbia, SC
• Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.
• Honolulu
• Madison, Wis.
• Providence
• San Diego
• Springfield, Mass.
• Syracuse
• Toledo
• Tucson
• Virginia Beach-Norfolk
None of the last three indicators is perfect. Each can overstate the problems that face retirement towns or areas dominated by colleges or military bases. But Buffalo doesn't fit into any of those categories, so we shouldn't experience that kind of statistical distortion here.
Which means it's definitely worth noting that only one metro qualified for all three lists.
Yep, us.
It would be silly to extrapolate these simple comparisons into demographic doom -- don't forget that projected local population of 3 million -- but it's essential to remember the current Millennial upswing in the Buffalo area is not guaranteed to continue indefinitely.